The Economic Outlook 2013

13 Nov 2013

Organised by: Swiss Re Centre for Global Dialogue

Information

In November 2012, Michael Heise, Chief Economist and Head of Corporate Development at Allianz SE, the featured guest speaker suggested that we are perhaps only midway through the crisis. And while there were some reasons for optimism, there was no convincing evidence of a sustainable economic recovery. The euro area crisis had worsened. There was slower-than-expected growth in emerging economies. The US was slowly making a recovery, but the situation there was complicated by public and private debt loads and political gridlock. And, the outlook for Japan was pretty grim.

What has changed in the intervening months?

Abenomics has brought about three straight quarters of expansion in Japan. China is slowing down, but opinion is divided as to whether this is a good or a bad thing. Just the mention of a possible phasing out the quantitative easing programme in the US by Ben Bernanke, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, over the summer caused the market to sputter. Politically, not much has changed in the US although the discussion now centres on the impact of sequestration and the looming budget battle between President Obama and the US Congress. The European Union is still alive, if not actually kicking. And, remember when Australia was having a "good" crisis?

This year's speakers

The Swiss Re Centre for Global Dialogue is pleased to announce Lucrezia Reichlin, Professor of Economics, London Business School and former Director General for Research at the European Central Bank, as this year's guest speaker. She will be joined by Geoffrey Bell, President, Geoffrey Bell & Company Inc and Executive Secretary, Group of Thirty, and Kurt Karl, Swiss Re's Chief Economist and Head Economic Research & Consulting.

Daniel M. Hofmann, Advisor to the Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Zurich Insurance Group, will serve as moderator.

This event may be broadcasted live, photographed, videotaped, filmed and/or recorded. A summary of the event, pictures and/or a video of the event in which you may appear may be posted and made available on Swiss Re’s and the Swiss Re Centre for Global Dialogue’s internal and external websites and in printed materials.

Agenda

16.45	Registration
17.15	Welcome and introduction Stephan Schreckenberg, Head Risk Research Relation, Swiss Re Centre for Global Dialogue Presentations Lucrezia Reichlin, Professor of Economics, London School of Business Kurt Karl, Chief Economist and Head Economic Research & Consulting, Swiss Re Geoffrey Bell, President, Geoffrey Bell & Company Inc and Executive Secretary, Group of Thirty
18.45	Panel discussion Daniel E. Hofmann, Advisor to the Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Zurich Insurance Group, will serve as moderator
19.30	Networking and refreshments

Speakers

Lucrezia Reichlin

Professor of Economics, London School of Business

Links

See her profile

Kurt Karl

Chief Economist, Swiss Re

As Swiss Re’s Chief Economist, Kurt E. Karl has responsibility for supervising and editing Swiss Re’s sigma papers, the award winning research series on the insurance industry. His team, a part of the Swiss Re Institute, supports Swiss Re’s strategic planning and provides internal consulting to Swiss Re on new products and insurance market developments. Additionally, he and his team provide insights and forecasts and scenarios on the global economy to Swiss Re for use in a variety of corporate decisions.

He is an expert on the U.S. and global economies with extensive experience and knowledge of foreign markets, and has lived and worked in Europe, Africa and Asia. Prior to joining Swiss Re, Dr. Karl was chief international economist at WEFA, Inc., an economic forecasting firm.

Dr. Karl has a BA from the University of Oregon, a M.Sc. from the London School of Economics and a Ph.D. from Princeton University.

Geoffrey Bell

President, Geoffrey Bell & Company Inc

Geoffrey Bell is President of Geoffrey Bell and Company, founded in 1982, which advises a wide range of central banks and governments on their international reserve asset and liability management programmes.

The company acts as a consultant to major corporations and banks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and South America providing advice on capital market transactions as well as undertaking economic, financial and country risk analysis. It also specializes in bank regulation and has worked closely on issues relating to the Basel Banking Committee.

He was the founder and is a member of the Board of Directors of the consultative group of international economic and monetary affairs known as the Group of 30.

Geoffrey Bell was appointed a Governor of the London School of Economics in 1994.

Daniel Hofmann

Economic Counsellor, International Association of Insurance Supervisors

Daniel M. Hofmann joined the International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS) in April 2011 after retirement from Zurich Financial Services (Zurich) where he had been Chief Economist since 2001. The IAIS is the global body of national insurance supervisors including more than 140 jurisdictions. Prior to Zurich Daniel Hofmann spent a productive career as financial editor for the Swiss daily news-paper Neue Zürcher Zeitung, which included a nine-year assignment as White House correspondent in Washington (from 1985 to 1994).

Daniel Hofmann was also a lecturer for international monetary affairs at the Zurich Management School. He has published in international journals and contributed essays to a number of books. He was a member of the Economic Advisory Committee of the International Institute of Finance. Other professional memberships included the American Economic Association, the National Association of Business Economists (in the US), and the Conference Board’s European Council of Economists, which he chaired in the 2004/2006 period.

Mr Hofmann received advanced degrees in economics from the University of Zurich in Switzerland and Brown University in Providence, RI, US.

Stephan Schreckenberg

Head Risk Research Relations, Swiss Re

Stephan Schreckenberg, Head Risk Research Relations, is responsible for generating and steering business-relevant applied risk research with external partners for Swiss Re. He manages Swiss Re’s Risk Fund which supports collaborative projects with research institutes worldwide. He maintains Swiss Re’s Risk Network of external risk experts.

Before joining the Centre, he worked for more than 10 years in Swiss Re’s corporate risk management department; he also served for seven years as Switzerland’s insurance industry representative to the Solvency II Steering Group at the European Insurance Industry Association (CEA). He holds a doctorate in physics from Imperial College, University of London.