Economic outlook

The Economic Outlook series provides monthly updates on the outlook for the global, US and Canadian economies, and quarterly updates on China's economy.



Global Economic Outlook

US employment rebounded, up 261,000, in October after a weak hurricane-induced September report. Despite the hurricanes, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 3% in 3Q17, led by a rise in inventories, vehicle sales and net exports. As a result, the Fed is still expected to hike rates in December. The President has chosen Jerome Powell as the Fed chair, a current governor on the Fed Board and as such a source of continuity in the Fed's policymaking. The Administration's tax proposals are now being modified by Congress.

US Economic Outlook

The economy added 261,000 jobs in October as leisure and hospitality jobs recovered from the Harvey and Irma hurricanes. Despite the hurricanes, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 3% in 3Q17, led by a rise in inventories and vehicle sales after the hurricanes, plus higher net exports.


China Economic Outlook Quarterly

China's economic growth slowed slightly to 6.8% in 3Q17 from 6.9% in previous quarter, as fixed asset investment slowed. On the other hand, domestic consumption and external demand bolstered growth in the quarter.


Canada Economic Outlook

Canadian economic data releases continue to surprise on the upside. Overall, real GDP in 2017 is projected to expand by a sturdy 2.9%, up from 1.5% in 2016, before slowing again to (still-above-trend) 1.9% in 2018. Due to the recent faster-than-expected growth, the Bank of Canada (BoC) now sees the output gap closing before year-end 2017, and thus is projected to hike rates one more time this year, most likely in October, followed by three increases next year. However, the uncertainty around the pace and quantity of hikes in 2018 is quite high and depends on the path of inflation in the near term.

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