Modelling biodiversity and ecosystem services loss scenarios

The project will build upon a participatory approach already applied for the creation of normative, nature-positive scenarios for future landscape development in Switzerland and expand this to the country of Peru. The scenarios constructed for Peru will be operationalized through simulation modelling exploring their impacts on land use change, biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services within the agriculture and forestry domains. These impacts will be summarized qualitatively in terms of their effect on economic sectors of interest for policy makers and communities.

Weblinks (lead researchers in parentheses):

• ETH PLUS (Adrienne Gret-Regamey, Benjamin Black)
• Wyss Academy for Nature, Climate Scenarios for Sustainable Development research team (Edouard Davin)
• Wyss Academy for Nature, Suth America Hub (Armando Valdés-Velásquez, Miguel Saravia)
• University of Lausanne, Spatial Ecology group (Antoine Guisan)
• ETH Ecosystems and Landscape Evolution group (Loïc Pellissier)
• Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement, Université Grenoble Alps (Ignacio Palomo)

This project will establish a robust decision-making framework for managing natural catastrophe risks using nature-based solutions. The framework strategically maps out alternative scenarios to assess the potential of restoration of degraded lands against baseline and pessimistic scenarios, aligned with the goal of containing global warming within 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels and other global agendas, thus combining both climate adaptation and mitigation. The framework is based on spatial intelligence to guide locally- and regionally-relevant policy and decision-making, offering a structured approach to enhance resilience and sustainability while addressing environmental challenges.

Weblinks (lead researchers on parenthesis):

• IIS website (Rafael Loyola)
• PLANGEA Web

Nature underpins society’s health and prosperity, and inspires and connects us to the world around us. Changing climate patterns will alter the state of nature and therefore affect our livelihoods, well-being, and quality of life. Understanding what impacts will occur and where can help in charting strategies for adapting to these changes. Through a participatory process, the University of Belize Environmental Research Institute (UB-ERI) will support local communities and stakeholders in Central Belize to identify how nature’s benefits may change with future climatic changes. This collaborative effort will empower them to start creating new visions and pathways that safeguard their livelihoods and way of life in the face of evolving environmental conditions. This project is in collaboration with the University of Southampton, CATIE.

Weblink (lead researchers on parenthesis): 

• uberibz.org (Ivis Chan, Jake Snaddon)

Current exacerbated changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services from local to global scales may become irreversible without further understanding of the development of the processes that lead to biodiversity and ecosystem service change. This is particularly problematic in regions of the globe already at risk, such as mountains, islands and deltas social-ecological systems, exemplify unique extreme environments where nature and humans have developed strong connections. This project examines the current status and the projected future of biodiversity and ecosystem services in all mountain, island and delta social-ecological systems at the global level, by combining a unique spatial data set of over 20 biodiversity and ecosystem service indicators with trajectories of change in the short term and biodiversity scenarios in the longer term.

Website (lead researchers on parenthesis):

• geo.uzh.ch (Maria Santos)

We will develop a series of biodiversity-ecosystem services analyses to better understand the potential implications of climate and land use change in Europe. Specifically, using models of land use change, ecosystem services, and biodiversity, we will quantify impacts of alternative development paths on biodiversity and people. Such will provide insight in the equality of access to benefits from biodiversity and distribution of risks. We will focus on plant, butterfly, bird, and mammal species, generating distribution and risk maps while assessing variation of different  socioeconomic pathways towards sustainability. Evaluating trade-offs emerging when considering different socioeconomic priorities, different organisms, and access to ecosystem services for people, this project will help envisioning improved biodiversity futures.

Website (lead researchers on parenthesis): 

• vu.nl (Federico Riva, Peter H. Verburg)