Bird flu – wake-up call for outbreaks of animal diseases?
The recent outbreak of Avian influenza is the largest ever and has killed millions of birds globally.¹ Transmission of the H5N1 virus from birds to other animals and (even) humans can trigger a range of insurance policies.
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Last year at least 22 million chickens were culled in the US in an attempt to stop the latest outbreak of Avian flu. In total, more than 43 million hens were killed,2 and many workers in the sector lost their jobs. In Japan, more than 10 million birds were culled, with over 90% being egg-laying hens. It was the worst outbreak of bird flu Japan has ever experienced.3 Culling has a short-term effect of limiting the spread of the virus. But culling is ineffective as a long-term strategy because by killing infected birds, host resistance is also eliminated.
Flying into humans
Flying into humans H5N1 was first reported in humans in Hong Kong in 1996 and there have been repeated cases since. In the winter of 2022/23, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported a few cases of transmission of bird flu to humans, with further cases reported in the media in the first quarter of 2023.4 As of yet, there have been no reported cases of human-to-human transmission but, as the WHO said “we cannot assume that will remain the case, and must prepare for any change in the status quo”.5
It is nigh impossible to prevent contact between wild animals and infected birds. The primary mode of virus transmission is when animals eat infected wild birds.6The bird flu virus has been detected in various mammals including foxes, sea lions, otters, black bears and pumas.7 Recently researchers found minks in Spain infected with H5N1, suggesting that the virus can also spread from mammal to mammal.8 There are vaccines for birds and more are under development9 but realistically, only farmed birds can be vaccinated. Almost all wild creatures are non-vaccinated.
The next pandemic?
Zoonotic diseases (pathogen spillover from animals to humans) have been a global health concern for several years. There have been worries that the recent outbreak of bird flu could become the next pandemic. Some factors escalating the risk are new variants of the virus, new mammal species being infected, climate change and shifts in bird migration routes.10 The WHO recommends that countries strengthen surveillance in settings where humans and farmed or wild animals interact.11 Avian flu is listed as a World Organisation for Animal Health disease, and national veterinary authorities must report outbreaks when certain thresholds are met.12
COVID-19 highlighted the weaknesses and gaps in the world’s collective defences against pandemics, notably funding shortages and lack of a globally coordinated response to disease outbreak. A World Bank/WHO report speculates that the costs of the next pandemic will likely exceed those of COVID-19 if these weaknesses are not addressed.13 A concern is pandemic fatigue, which could lead to a slower response to signs of a new pandemic, and potential delays in executing the necessary mitigation actions.14 Insurers would be well advised to translate the learnings from COVID-19 to reflect the possibility of virus crossover from animals to humans.
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References
1 “2022-2023 Confirmations of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Commercial and Backyard Flocks”, USDA, 18 January 2023, “Record avian flu outbreak sees 48m birds culled in UK and EU,” BBC News, 3 October 2022.
2 “US egg factory roasts alive 5.3m chickens in avian flu cull – then fires almost every worker”, The Guardian, 28 April 2022. “Avian influenza outbreaks reduced egg production, driving prices to record highs in 2022”, The USDA, 11 January 2023.
3 “Record 10 Million Birds Culled in Japan Due to Avian Flu”, Nippon, 24 January 2023.
4 “Influenza at the human-animal interface summary and assessment, 5 January 2023”, The WHO, 5 January 2023., “Girl who died of bird flu did not have widely-circulating variant”, Nature, 28 February 2023., “China reports a third human case of the H3N8 strain of bird flu”, South China Morning Post, March 29 2023., “Chile detects first case of bird flu in a human”, Reuters, 30 March 2023.
5 “WHO Director-General’s opening remarks at the media briefing – 8 February 2023”, The WHO, 8 February 2023.
6 “Bird Flu in Pets and Other Animals”, The CDC, 22 February 2023.
7 Avian Influenza, The WOAH, March 2023.
8 Agüero, M. et al. “Highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in farmed minks, Spain, October 2022”, Eurosurveillance.org, Volume 28, Issue 3, 19 January 2023.
9 “U.S. to test shots against bird flu outbreak, as Biden administration weighs poultry vaccinations”, CBS News, February 9 2023., “Could avian flu cause the next human pandemic?”, The Economist, 15 February 2023.
10 “Avian Influenza”, WOAH.org, March 2023, C.J, Carlson et al. “Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk”, Nature, 22 April 2022.
11 “WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing – 8 February 2023”, The WHO, 8 February 2023.
12 “Avian Influenza”, The WOAH, March 2023.
13 “Analysis of Pandemic Preparedness and Response (PPR) architecture, financing needs, gaps and mechanisms”, The WHO and the World Bank, 22 March 2022.
14 “Could avian flu cause the next human pandemic?”, The Economist,15 February 2023., “Bird flu outbreak is a wake-up call for agriculture”, The Straits Times, 9 February 2023.