Thawing permafrost – accelerating climate, infrastructure and health hazards
Permafrost has been thawing at an increased speed over the past decades in both high latitudes and the mountainous regions across the world. This poses environmental, property and health risks, and may translate into property and liability claims, and also higher costs in L&H business.
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Permafrost is the ground (rock, soil and ice) that remains at or below 0°C (32°F) for two or more years, typically lying below the layer of ground that freezes and thaws annually.1 Such conditions apply – or once applied – to a quarter of the northern hemisphere, with most of the planet’s permafrost found in northern Russia, Canada, Alaska, Iceland and Scandinavia.2 Permafrost is also found in mountainous regions at high elevations.
Climate change effects are expected to accelerate the thawing of large expanses of permafrost in numerous regions. This scenario presents many challenges, including ultimately for insurers. In the US, environmental groups have filed a lawsuit against a local authority that has approved a new oil and gas project in Alaska that would contribute to climate change.3
Opening Pandora's Box
An estimated 1400 gigatons of carbon is entombed in permafrost, roughly four times the amount that humans have emitted since the Industrial Revolution.4 A 2°C temperature rise above pre-industrial levels could result in a loss of about 40% of the world’s permafrost by 2100.5
As permafrost thaws, once-dormant microorganisms begin to break down organic matter, releasing CO2 and methane. The latter is an even stronger greenhouse gas. This would further accelerate the path to irreversible climate change.
Damage to infrastructure…
Permafrost melt poses significant risks to infrastructure and buildings. A 2022 study concludes that infrastructure damage is already occurring and is “projected to continue, with 30–50% of critical circumpolar infrastructure thought to be at high risk by 2050.”6
Erecting infrastructure on permafrost can have local impacts: models indicate that the interaction of the infrastructure with the frozen ground it rests on can accelerate degradation of permafrost compared to an area where there is no development.7
Even so, construction continues to advance in regions where there is permafrost, including that of energy industry infrastructure exposed to risks from thawing ground. In places such as Alaska, for example, energy companies already use so-called “thermosyphons” to stabilise thawing areas located adjacent to infrastructure.8 Widening thawing of permafrost in energy-producing regions including in Russia and Canada has the potential to further damage roads, rail tracks, pipelines and port facilities erected on permafrost, creating energy delivery supplychain disruptions. These could all lead to significant claims in property insurance.
…and to health, on a huge scale
Thawing permafrost also poses risk to health, of both humans and animals. It can release pathogens previously trapped in frozen ground, such as anthrax.9 Thawing also causes limestone deposits to release toxic substances, such as mercury and radon.10 Mercury poisoning of water sources has been reported in permafrost regions. And radon is considered a major cause of lung cancer. In sum, further thawing of permafrost could have significant health consequences, which could also mean rising claims in L&H lines of insurance business.11
Video: Interview with a permafrost expert
Further Information
References
1 “Technical Documentation: Permafrost”, US Environnemental Protection Agency (EPA).
2 “Where is Frozen Ground?” National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
3 “Willow Project Complaint”.
4 “How Thawing Permafrost Is Beginning to Transform the Arctic,” Yale Environment 360, 21 January 2020.
5 Chadburn, S. E., “An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a function of global warming” Nature Climate Change, 7(340–344), 2017.
6 Hjort, J. et al., “Impacts of permafrost degradation on infrastructure,” Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 3(24–38), 2022.
7 Schneider von Deimling, T., et al., “Consequences of permafrost degradation for Arctic infrastructure – bridging the model gap between regional and engineering scales,” The Cryosphere 15 (2451–2471), 2021.
8 “Using Thermosyphons on Alaska’s North Slope,” ConocoPhillips, Sustainability News, 28 February 2020.
9 Stella, E. et al., “Permafrost dynamics and the risk of anthrax transmission: a modelling study,” Scientific Reports 10(16460), 2020.
10 Schaefer, K. et al., ”Potential impacts of mercury released from thawing permafrost,” Nature Communications 11(4650), 2020.
11 “Climate change in the Arctic and radon gas: a rising threat from the ground up,” National Collaborating Centre for Environmental Health (NCCEH – CCSNE), 11 March 2022.